[Centrus Energy] Risk Assessment

 

  1. Export ban on uranium from Russia

    Russian's ban on the uranium exports would bring some uncertainties to Centrus's business and, as far as I know, no one has estimated how big the impact is.  I have just noted the facts that Rosatom announced to seek for exemption to resume its supply to their customers right after Russia Government's announcement for the export ban, as well as Trump is close to Putin.  The Russia's export restrictions are unlikely to severely damage the United States, while they will have an immediate negative impact on Rosatom's business.  So I don't believe this risk lasts long (eventually, Russia's uranium exports are likely to resume under some exemptions).

  2.  The company's HALEU production is going at a slower pace than the target

    Centrus's HALEU production is the nation's first one.  It is not surprising that some delays occur. For example, cylinder shortages have delayed its HALEU plan (Cylinder shortages hit Centrus HALEU plans - World Nuclear News).  Centrus Energy used to produce LEU in commercial scale about 10 years ago. I believe they have technical capabilities of HALEU production.  In any case, Centrus would be the nation's first case to complete HALEU production and delivery according to the contract with US DoE.  None of its competitors has even commenced HALEU production yet.
    As far as I concerned, the key question is how Centrus can keep their manufacturing cost low enough to realize proper profit margin.  For now, the company is the only option for HALEU, and thus the company would be able to put the price high enough to secure proper profit margins.

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